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In the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Shifting seas: understanding deep-time human impacts on marine ecosystems’. 

Abstract The Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions. 

A 2,000 year-long oceanographic history, in sub-centennial resolution, from a Canadian Beaufort Sea continental shelf site (60meters water depth) near the Mackenzie River outlet is reconstructed from ostracode and foraminifera faunal assemblages, shell stable isotopes (delta 18O, delta 13C) and sediment biogenic silica. The chronology of three sediment cores making up the composite section was established using 137Cs and 210Pb dating for the most recent 150 years and combined with linear interpolation of radiocarbon dates from bivalve shells and foraminifera tests.Continuous centimeter-sampling of the multicore and high-resolution sampling of a gravity and piston core yielded a time-averaged faunal record of every approximately 40 years from 0 to 1850 CE and every approximately 24 years from 1850 to 2013 CE. Proxy records were consistent with temperature oscillations and related changes in organic carbon cycling associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Abundance changes in dominant microfossil species, such as the ostracode Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata and agglutinated foraminifers Spiroplectammina biformis and S. earlandi, are used as indicators of less saline, and possibly corrosive/turbid bottom conditions associated with the MCA (approximately 800 to 1200 CE) and the most recent approximately 60 years (1950–2013). During these periods, pronounced fluctuations in these species suggest that prolonged seasonal sea-ice melting, changes in riverine inputs and sediment dynamics affected the benthic environment. Taxa analyzed for stable oxygen isotope composition of carbonates show the lowest delta 18O values during intervals within the MCA and the highest during the late LIA, which is consistent with a 1 degree to 2 degree C cooling of bottom waters. Faunal and isotopic changes during the cooler LIA (1300 to 1850 CE) are most apparent at approximately 1500 to 1850 CE and are particularly pronounced during 1850 to approximately 1900 CE, with an approximate 0.5 per mil increase in delta 18O values of carbonates from median values in the analyzed taxa. This very cold 50-year period suggests that enhanced summer sea ice suppressed productivity,which is indicated by low sediment biogenic silica values and lower delta 13C values in analyzed species. From 1900CE to present, declines in calcareous faunal assemblages and changes in dominant species (Cassidulina reniforme and P. pseudopunctillata) are associated with less hospitable bottom waters, indicated by a peak in agglutinated foraminifera from 1950 to 1990 CE.